• Disclosure
  • Privacy Policy
  • DMCA Policy
  • CCPA
  • Medical Disclaimer
Monday, January 30, 2023
Massachusetts Digital News
  • Home
  • US
  • Business
  • World
  • Boston
  • Worcester
  • Springfield
  • Cambridge
  • Lowell
  • Brockton
  • Press Releases
  • Videos
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • US
  • Business
  • World
  • Boston
  • Worcester
  • Springfield
  • Cambridge
  • Lowell
  • Brockton
  • Press Releases
  • Videos
No Result
View All Result
No Result
View All Result
Home World

Behind Kazakhstan Unrest, The ‘Strongman’s Dilemma’

by NewsReporter
January 7, 2022
in World
behind-kazakhstan-unrest,-the-‘strongman’s-dilemma’
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

The Interpreter

Since the Cold War’s end, most dictatorial governments have collapsed after their ruler’s departure.

As Kazakhstan’s only ruler since independence, Nursultan Nazarbayev was keenly aware of the difficulties of succession. The unrest in Kazakhstan suggests that the problem may be virtually unresolvable. 
As Kazakhstan’s only ruler since independence, Nursultan Nazarbayev was keenly aware of the difficulties of succession. The unrest in Kazakhstan suggests that the problem may be virtually unresolvable. Credit…Shamil Zhumatov/Reuters

Max Fisher

Jan. 7, 2022, 12:06 p.m. ET

Kazakhstan’s explosion into unrest this week presents a stark warning to the strongman autocrats of the world: Leaving office is perilous.

Since the Cold War’s end, a staggering 70 percent of governments headed by strongmen collapsed after the ruler departed, according to one data set.

The trend holds whether the leader leaves voluntarily or involuntarily, dies in office or retires to a country home.

Sometimes, as in Spain after Francisco Franco’s death in 1975, it opens the way to democratization. More often, as in Egypt, Sudan, Zimbabwe and many others, the result is a cycle of coups, civil conflict or other violence.

Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s lifelong leader until he began gradually handing power to a successor in 2019, was, by all appearances, keenly aware of this problem.

He told an interviewer in 2014 that any country like his needed “a sustainable system put in place that would be stable against the backdrop of a new leader’s arrival,” ticking through Malaysia or Singapore as possible models.

Mr. Nazarbayev stage-managed his own departure in ways that suggest painstaking attention to the lessons of history, and his transition was watched closely in Moscow and other capitals as a potential model.

His departure does not appear to have specifically set off Kazakhstan’s protests. But the unrest, the government’s failure to maintain support and now its flailing response are typical of the divided, disoriented bureaucracies that often falter after a strongman’s departure.

The lesson, experts stress, is hardly that strongmen bring stability. Quite the opposite: Their style of rule erodes the foundations of governance, making themselves indispensable at the cost of leaving behind a political system barely capable of governing but primed for infighting.

Image

Riot police in the center of Almaty, Kazakhstan, on Wednesday.Credit…Vladimir Tretyakov/Associated Press

The Strongman’s Dilemma

Autocrats like Mr. Nazarbayev who stand alone at the top, as opposed to those who rule on behalf of a larger party apparatus as in Cuba or Vietnam, face a tricky challenge.

They must strike a balance between all of their country’s internal factions, ruling elites, security services and military brass, guaranteeing each enough power and spoils to keep them bought in, but without letting any grow powerful enough to challenge them.

As a result, strongmen-led dictatorships tend to be more repressive and more corrupt. And their leaders frequently obsess over potential rivals, whether a regional leader who grows too popular or a security agency with too much autonomy.

In his 29 years of rule, Mr. Nazarbayev was, like many such leaders, notorious for shuffling his government, promoting and demoting deputies to keep them off balance.

But stifling rising stars, hollowing out power centers and stuffing institutions with loyalists (often chosen because they are too weak to pose a threat) leaves the government barely able to stand on its own.

And it creates what some scholars call the strongman’s dilemma: how to set up a successor without creating a rival, and how to leave a government able to outlast the leader without making themselves redundant and vulnerable.

Image

Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe was 93 and visibly declining when he was deposed in a coup.Credit…Mike Hutchings/Reuters

Some try to solve this by grooming family members. Two of the rare successes followed this model: Azerbaijan and Syria, where dying autocrats passed power to their sons.

Still, children often prove unable to win the necessary support, inviting challengers to try to take power themselves. North Korea is the only modern non-monarchy to have reached a third generation of family autocratic rule.

Appointing flunkies or other easily controlled subordinates creates a similar problem.

But staying in office indefinitely is little better. As the leader’s health inevitably falters, rivals or even allies may be tempted to grab for power before someone else can take it first. Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe was 93 and visibly declining when he was deposed in a coup.

This is why despots tend to hide from public view when they have health problems, to avoid any appearance of frailty that might set off a race to replace them. It’s also why the disappearance of a dictator, even a reviled one, tends to produce panicked rumors as citizens fear the consequences of a power vacuum.

When strongman rule works, the leader is the keystone holding it all together. But any keystone is also the point of greatest weakness. If it falls away, the whole thing collapses. Which is precisely what often happens.

“The moment of transfer has almost always been a moment of crisis,” the scholar Andrew Nathan has written, “involving purges or arrests, factionalism, sometimes violence, and opening the door to the chaotic intrusion into the political process of the masses or the military.”

Image

An image of President Vladimir Putin on Moscow’s outskirts last year. Mr. Putin will eventually face the same problem of succession that Mr. Nazarbayev did.Credit…Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

Kazakhstan’s Lesson

This dilemma has especially hung over the former Soviet world, where autocrats have held on two or three times the average strongman’s tenure, which is about a decade.

But longer rule means a longer fall, for the leader and their country, once they inevitably depart.

This has heightened the stakes, with many post-Soviet leaders extending term limits. Vladimir V. Putin of Russia recently pushed his to 2036, when he will be 83.

With every passing year, it becomes harder for autocrats to hand off power, while the risks rise of disaster if a crisis should force them out.

“The odds of regime survival are very dim if the leader’s departure was forced,” said Erica Frantz, a Michigan State University scholar of authoritarianism.

This is much more than a problem for strongmen. Such leaders are increasingly common worldwide, a point of convergence for both calcifying dictatorships and backsliding democracies. At least two sit in the heart of Europe. Some experts consider China, where Xi Jinping is building a cult of personality and has paved the way for lifelong rule, to now qualify.

Image

President Xi Jinping of China is building a cult of personality and has paved the way for lifelong rule, potentially creating problems for his successor.Credit…Jade Gao/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

And the more of the world comes under this style of rule, the more millions of people are exposed to the dangers of a catastrophically failed succession.

Mr. Nazarbayev had seemingly addressed this problem by stepping halfway out of power as a loyalist nominally took over. In theory, he was to be just present enough to keep the system together, but absent enough to allow it to coalesce around a new order.

But even in such rare cases where it looks like a transition has worked, Dr. Frantz said she has found in her research, the new government tends to collapse within an average of about five years.

“Their successors often face serious challenges in governance,” she said, citing Venezuela, where President Nicolás Maduro has faced ever-mounting crises since taking over from Hugo Chávez in 2013.

Kazakhstan now looks like an example of this, too. It casts doubt on Mr. Nazarbayev’s supposed solution and suggests that the problem of strongman succession may be, on some level, irresolvable.

It is why, just as Mr. Nazarbayev’s exit in 2019 is thought to have been closely watched in palace drawing rooms from Moscow to Manila, it is a safe bet that the turmoil he failed to forestall will be as well.

Read More Here

Related Posts

johnny-depp-texted-a-friend-about-amber-heard’s-‘rotting-corpse’-–-follow-latest

Johnny Depp Texted A Friend About Amber Heard’s ‘rotting Corpse’ – Follow Latest

by Duong
April 14, 2022
0

Johnny Depp's friend Isaac Baruch weeps in stand during Amber Heard defamation trialJohnny Depp’s multi-million defamation lawsuit against his former wife, Amber Heard, continues in Virginia. The court has heard from the actor’s sister Christi Dembrowski, who also acted in part as his business manager, and his artist friend and...

ohio-man-blames-trump’s-‘sinister’-plot-for-jan-6-riots-–-follow-live

Ohio Man Blames Trump’s ‘sinister’ Plot For Jan 6 Riots – Follow Live

by Duong
April 13, 2022
0

Mitch McConnell explains why he will still support Donald Trump The latest Capitol riot defendant to go on trial is blaming his actions on Donald Trump and his false claims about a stolen election, in a rare mention of the former president’s role during the ongoing hearings.Dustin Byron Thompson, an...

uk-says-‘all-options-on-table’-if-russians-used-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine

UK Says ‘all Options On Table’ If Russians Used Chemical Weapons In Ukraine

by Duong
April 12, 2022
0

Boris Johnson’s government has said “all possible options” are on the table to respond to Russia if Vladimir Putin’s forces are found to have used chemical weapons in Ukraine.Foreign secretary Liz Truss and Armed Forces minister James Heappey said the UK was working with allies to verify reports that Russian forces may...

why-boris-johnson-was-gifted-a-ceramic-cockerel-on-his-visit-to-ukraine

Why Boris Johnson Was Gifted A Ceramic Cockerel On His Visit To Ukraine

by Duong
April 11, 2022
0

NewsWorldEuropeA single ceramic cockerel stood untouched on a kitchen cabinet during a bombardment of Borodianka, giving rise to this new symbol of resistance Zelensky hails Boris Johnson's Kyiv's visitThe prime minister was gifted a symbolic ceramic cockerel as he walked through the streets of Kyiv on his surprise visit to...

Massachusetts Digital News

© 2021 Massachusetts Digital News

Navigate Site

  • Disclosure
  • Privacy Policy
  • DMCA Policy
  • CCPA
  • Medical Disclaimer

Follow Us

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • DMCA Policy
  • Medical Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclosure
  • CCPA
  • Terms of Use

© 2021 Massachusetts Digital News

We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept All”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent.
Cookie SettingsAccept All
Manage consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional11 monthsThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy11 monthsThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
SAVE & ACCEPT